What is the Ecological Forecasting Cluster?

The Ecological Forecasting Cluster was created to both promote collaboration and science research within the ESIP Federation and to cultivate relationships with critical external groups. These pursuits will have two central activities: general meetings for discussion and research integration, as well as participation in the Federation’s Earth Information Exchange.

The theme of this particular Cluster is to help preserve ecosystems by giving policy makers, resource managers and regulators comprehensive information based on sound science. The Federation is in a unique position to do this due to the vast data holdings and applications of its members.

Please contact us if you wish to join the cluster or for further information.

Cluster Lead:

Paul Davis, University of Maryland

Cluster Co-Lead:

Danny Hardin, University of Alabama in Huntsville

What is Ecological Forecasting?

Ecosystems are vital to the health, safety and economy of the of world’s population. Agricultural and marine ecosystems produce food and materials for human consumption. Ecosystems are responsible for filtering air and water, establishing buffers between ocean and shore, providing recreational areas for enjoyment as well as for tourism benefits. Ecosystems are also responsible for sustaining the vast biological diversity of the planet.

Ecosystems also are fragile. They are easily influenced by natural stressors such as floods, fires, storms and climate change. Human influences play a major role as well. Habitat areas are lost or disturbed due to commercial development. Pollution from agriculture and industry can poison environments. Invasive species can completely replace indigenous plants and animals.

The ability to predict how ecosystems will respond to human and natural influences is known as ecological forecasting. The complexities of ecosystems make this task difficult. Accurate forecasts require knowledge of the structure, composition and interdependencies of the biological ecosystem elements, and how they react to external pressures.

Today there are many resources available to aid in the measurement and monitoring of ecosystems. Accurate terrain maps, remotely sensed and in-situ data collections covering a wide range of parameters, and numerous physical and biological models provide a rich set of tools for scientists, policy makers and resource planners.

Ecological Forecasting is a National Priority with the NASA Applied Science Program. Visit the web site (http://science.hq.nasa.gov/earth-sun/applications/theme13.htm) for their details on this topic. Ecological Forecasting is also a major topic at the USGS National Biological Information Infrastructure, with detailed web pages (http://www.nbii.gov/about/pubs/efbrochure/page2.html) exploring the theme.

Focal areas of the Ecological Forecasting Cluster:

The Ecological Forecasting Cluster has identified four areas for initial work. They are:

• Harmful algal blooms
• Regional scale environmental and sustainable development
• Marine fisheries
• Protected areas management

Collaborations with other Federation Clusters:

The overlap of the Ecological Forecasting Cluster with other clusters is significant. The Coastal Management Cluster has already been identified as having common goals. Additionally, the Public Health Cluster covers similar issues such as food contamination – particularly fish. The Water Management Cluster may also overlap since water is a critical ingredient of all ecosystems, and the Disaster Management Cluster has obvious links with coastal ecosystems.

The initial joint meeting of the Coastal Management and Ecological Forecasting Clusters determined that the following topics are suitable for our first collaboration efforts:

• Harmful Algal Blooms
• Sea Level Change
• Marine Fisheries and Marine Mammals
• Habitat loss due to Coastal development

What is next?

The Ecological Forecasting Cluster is working toward full establishment by the 18th Federation meeting (January 2007). Toward that end, we invite members to

1. Review and update the “Cluster_Info” spreadsheet on the wiki (wiki.esipfed.org).
2. Review current and past documents on the wiki.
3. Volunteer products and services for posting to the Earth Information Exchange portal.
4. Participate and encourage activities through email and telecoms.
5. Work toward achieving our first pilot topic, “Harmful Algal Blooms” by suggesting collaborators, web sites, data collections, etc.
6. Engage additional Federation members and potential external associations.
7. Review and update the joint Coastal Management-Ecological Forecasting materials as they become available.

For further information, please contact the cluster leaders or the Federation staff.